The typical Republican voter and the typical resident of New Jersey do not usually have a lot in common, since New Jerseyans tend to be independent voters, perhaps slightly leaning toward the Democratic party. But recently the members of those two groups have been sharing the same concern: is Chris Christie going to run for president in 2012?

A brief look at two recent pivotal elections will show that Christie, should he choose to run, indeed has a strong chance of being elected.

The 2000 election pitted two men with considerably different backgrounds. Al Gore was a career politician who had spent 23 years in the House of Representatives, U.S. Senate and as vice-president. He was considered a very bright person who understood most of the issues facing the country. George W. Bush, on the other hand, had spent 5 years as governor of Texas, but during the presidential campaign revealed a total lack of knowledge about foreign affairs, even to the point of not knowing who the prime minister of Canada was. Yet the voters, in perhaps the closest presidential vote since 1876, selected ignorance over years of experience.

Fast-forward to 2008. Another career politician with considerable experience was John McCain, who had spent 26 years in the House of Representatives and U.S. Senate and had a reputation of being an independent thinker who worked well with both sides of the political spectrum. Running against him was total novice Barakh Obama whose sole experience was 4 years in the US Senate. But again the voters chose inexperience and a rock star personna over experience and an outstanding reputation forged over many years in Congress.

Which brings us to 2012 and Chris Christie, who has less than 2 years’ experience as governor, during which his greatest achievement seems to be posting videos on YouTube which make him look domineering. His accomplishments, quite frankly, have been minimal, and while he claims an ability to work cooperatively with the opposition party, the Democratic president of the state senate has attacked Christie as “a bully and a punk. I wanted to punch him in his head,” while the Democratic speaker of the state house said she was “beginning to wonder if Gov. Christie is mentally deranged.”

So, all things considered, and based on the outcomes in 2000 and 2008, if Chris Christie chooses to run for president, I think it is safe to say that he will likely be the leading candidate in a country which in recent presidential elections seems to prefer lack of preparation over expertise.